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Analysts look to positives amid N Korea tensions

TENSIONS over the stand-off between the US and North Korea could pressure global stock markets, say investment experts, though some note that concerns over the prospect of a French referendum on whether to leave the European Union may encourage capital to stay put in Thai and other emerging markets.

Warut Sivasariyonon, managing director for research at Asia Wealth Securities, said that the face-off between Washington and Pyongyang over North Korea’s nuclear programme was likely to persist as an issue that warranted monitoring by investors.

Despite North Korea’s failed missile launch last Sunday, global money markets are concerned over the escalating tensions and the risk of renewed conflict on the Korean peninsula, and investors may switch out of stocks into low-risk assets and that could affect the Thai bourse, he said.

Monthol Junchaya, chief investment officer at One Asset Management, said that the Stock Exchange of Thailand Index could be volatile over the coming weeks, pressured not only by the North Korean issue but the fallout from the US attacks strikes on Syria.

Topping concerns out of Europe is that two of the four leading candidates for France’s presidential election have vowed to hold a referendum on the country’s membership of the EU if they won. Polls indicate strong support for the two: the far-right’s Marine Le Pen and the far-left’s Jean Luc Melenchon.

This week, the SET Index is forecast to move in a range of 1,575 to 1,590 points, Warut said, warning investors to proceed with caution and an eye on external developments.

One Asset Management estimates the benchmark index will move in a range of 1,560-1,600 points.


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Joe Miller
the authorJoe Miller
I have been living in Thailand for over 20 years and witnessed the many changes the country has undergone since the Asian Financial Crisis. I have spent time in Phuket, Samui, Hua Hin, and Chiang Mai, but I gravitate back to Bangkok when all is said and done. It is here that I spent years running a software development company and teaching at universities. These days I live on the Internet with Bangkok as my base. I never stopped believing in the enormous potential of Thailand's kingdom, which is why I joined the ThaiVest Team.

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